Amid convulsive politics, the northeast of Nigeria has reached a
critical security situation yet once again. Communal violence is adding
to the growing humanitarian response gap, with Boko Haram not the only
threat to the country’s security. Last weekend alone, at least 100
people were killed and 2,000 were displaced after 40 gunmen stormed
villages in central northern Kaduna state. Despite Nigeria’s booming
economy, inequality is rampant in the country, and the deteriorating
security situation in northern states may further destabilise a country
of 170 million that seems to be struggling to stay united. How the
government deals with the ever-growing Islamist threat, inter-communal
violence, and their humanitarian consequences will be important factors
in determining the outcome of 2015 elections.
Government response to the humanitarian consequences of violence
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been in power since 1999, but
its continuity as the ruling party is being jeopardised by the
government’s failure to tackle Boko Haram, and the humanitarian
consequences of endemic violence. The lack of security and limited
access to affected populations makes it difficult to estimate the
humanitarian needs in affected areas. However, the government has
recently agreed to facilitate access both for humanitarian agencies and
human rights monitors—according to a statement of the United Nations
High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, during her visit to the
country last week.
Attacks by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram have intensified
since January 2014, killing several hundred and causing mass
displacement of population. On 20th February, Boko Haram’s leader Shekau
issued a video where he vowed to kill several national leaders. This
week, the government has been forced to close 85 schools in northeastern
Borno, an area that has the country's worst literacy rates, affecting
nearly 120,000 students. Previous strategies, such as declaring a state
of emergency in the three northeastern states of Borno, Yobe, and
Adamawa in May 2013, or assembling a Joint Task Force of military and
police units, have proven at best useless, and at worst prompted more
extrajudicial killings from corrupt forces.
Nigeria’s future and regional impact of 2015 elections
At a time of tense politics and volatile security, Nigeria’s national
conference opened on Monday in Abuja. 492 delegates representing the
country’s ethnic and religious groups are in the capital to discuss the
future of Nigeria and address a wide range of topics, from oil revenues
to Islamist extremism. However, delegates have been prevented from
discussing Nigeria’s unity and the potential for the country to fragment
after the 2015 elections.
Defections from the PDP to the All Progressives Congress (APC) have
made headlines since November last year, in what has been described as a
‘defection storm’ that is still on-going. Two days ago, the 2015
elections were again the focus of attention when a Federal High Court
ruled that President Goodluck Jonathan is free to seek re-election—which
may cause further defections given internal opposition within his
party.
The presidential elections, to be held on 14th February 2015, will
also have a broader impact in the region. The outcome of Nigeria’s
elections and how the winning party deals with the general security
situation will affect neighbouring countries—particularly Niger, Chad
and Cameroon, where over 15,000 Nigerian refugees have sought asylum to
date as a consequence of violence in the country. Nigeria is preparing
to vote amidst a changing political climate and a volatile security
situation, and the outcome of the elections is yet difficult to predict.
